“We predict with high confidence the tipping to happen as soon as mid-century (2037–2109 is a 95% confidence range).”
The IPCC’s model runs call a full AMOC collapse unlikely this century. This paper runs 150 years of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and puts the tipping point between 2037 and 2109. The current is only monitored directly since 2004, so the record behind the reassuring forecasts is short. The early edge of that range lands inside a 30-year mortgage.