“The 2025 shutdown, by comparison, has derailed 100% of appropriations.”
The federal government reopened November 12 after 43 days without funding, surpassing the 2018-2019 record of 35 days. Unlike the previous shutdown which affected only 10% of government spending, this one halted all appropriations. The Congressional Budget Office estimated the shutdown reduced fourth-quarter GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points, with permanent losses between $7 billion and $14 billion. The lack of timely economic statistics amplified uncertainty in markets already rattled by policy volatility. Goldman Sachs expects most of the economic impact to reverse in Q1 2026.