“As of 29 January 2025, ESA estimates that the probability that asteroid 2024 YR4 may impact Earth on 22 December 2032 is 1.2%.”
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is 40 to 100 meters wide with a 1.2% chance of hitting Earth in 2032. That is enough to activate both UN-endorsed planetary defense groups. It is fading from view and may not be observable again until 2028.